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Kerch Bridge Déjà Vu - Breakdown

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Message  Vivre Enrussie Mar 18 Juil 2023 - 18:27

Kerch Bridge Déjà Vu - Breakdown
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/kerch-bridge-deja-vu-breakdown?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Why does Putin specifically call it a terrorist attack? Because, as he states, the Kerch Bridge is actually no longer used for military supplies and has not been for many months, and is therefore exclusively a civilian corridor. This is an interesting admission on his behalf because it appears to possibly point to a secret agreement with the West/Kiev, perhaps as part of the Grain Deal and other such backdoor handshakes that go on all the time, both explicit and implicit.
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This new attack was carried out by naval drones, that much was obvious to me even before the attack happened. Given the new security measures the bridge implemented after the first attack, which includes extensive x-ray facilities for all large cargo trucks to scan them for explosives, there remained no realistic way to attack the bridge other than by sea.

From the air is very problematic for the following reasons:

Ukraine does not have much that can reach the bridge from its territory

The only thing it does have, like newly acquired Storm Shadow missiles, are not really powerful enough to take down the bridge without a massive swarm attack, which itself has many technical challenges. One of them is that Russian AD is too active/powerful there and shoots down everything Ukraine sends, which has already been proven many times before.

You see, in the much more complex terrain-scapes of the inner country, you can disguise missiles by designing flight paths which take advantage of geographical and terrain features, like going behind hills/mountains/buildings, etc. But in the wide open flat sea-scape of the bridge, it creates a fairly ideal environment for AD to function.
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