What Does Not Kill You Will Make You Stronger – The Russian Economy 2014 – 2016, the Years of Sanctions Warfare

What Does Not Kill You Will Make You Stronger – The Russian Economy 2014 – 2016, the Years of Sanctions Warfare
This report is based on Awara Accounting’s research on how the Russian economy managed in 2014 – 2016 to cope with the dual shocks of Western sanctions and the accompanying precipitous fall of the oil price.
KEY FINDINGS:
Russia’s economy has successfully adjusted to dual shock of sanctions and oil price plunge
Minor GDP loss of -2.3% for 3 years of sanctions will be completely recovered in 2017 with expected 2-3% growth
Oil & gas share of GDP drops to below 10%
Industrial production stable 2014-2016, soars in May by +5.3%
Russia’s economy now the most diversified in the world. Exports remain relatively undiversified, but domestic production highly diversified and self-sufficient
Debt Crisis predicted by Western pundits failed to materialize
CB reserves intact and sovereign wealth funds solid
Budget deficit never went below -3.9%. Tax collection soars in 2017, budget now balanced
Oil & gas only 17% of budget revenue (2016)
Inflation falls to near 4%
Unemployment remains low at 5% level
Demographic indicators reach all-time best
Population at 146.8 million – all-time high
Only clearly negative data: Salaries, disposable income and consumption. Retail sales down more than 10%

https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/russian-economy-2014-2016-the-years-of-sanctions-warfare/