Marche Automobile 2011 - Les chiffres de l'Association of European Businesses

January showed a considerable growth on the market of new cars and light commercial vehicles in
Russia
• Sales of new passenger cars and LCVs in Russia increased by 72% in January 2011
• Among the top 10 bestselling models so far, nine are locally produced
The first month of 2011 saw sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia increase by 72% compared with January 2010, or by 53,562 more sold units, according to the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee
(AEB AMC).

Sales of new cars and LCVs in Russia increased by 60% within the first five months of 2011 and by
48% in May 2011

In comparison to the same period in 2010, January to May 2011 saw the sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in
Russia increase by 60%. Car sales exceeded those within the same period in 2010 by 371,556 units, according to the AEB
Automobile Manufacturers Committee (AEB AMC).
Car sales in May 2011 exceeded those in May 2010 by 48% or 76,148 units.
Among the top ten bestselling models of passenger cars so far, nine are produced in Russia.
David Thomas, Chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee commented: "Year to year growth for May of 48%
whilst less than the year to date picture remains very strong given the usual impact of two holiday weekends. Previous years have
seen a decline compared to the April market, but in 2011 May is at exactly the same volume as April. Although we expect a
stabilisation of growth compared to 2010 as the year progresses we will still review our consensus forecast in at the mid year
point with another small increase in full year forecast likely, once we have the June results."
Mark Ovenden, Vice-Chairman of the AEB AMC adds: "The industry continues to show signs of sustained recovery and
although year over year increases will reduce reflecting the inclusion of scrappage sales in the prior year, the outlook for 2011
remains positive. Provided that the global economic recovery continues, the medium and long term view for the Russian
automotive market is very encouraging".

June shows the recovery on the Russian market is now well established
• Sales of new passenger cars and LCVs in Russia increased by 56% in the first half of 2011 and by
40% in June 2011
• Among the top 10 bestselling models so far, nine are locally produced
The first half of 2011 saw sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia increase by 56% compared with the
same period in 2010 or by 441,959 more sold units, according to the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee (AEB
AMC).
Growth for June 2011 amounted to 40% or 70,403 units compared with the same period in 2010.
Among the top ten bestselling models of passenger cars so far, nine are produced in Russia.
David Thomas, Chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee commented:
"Growth for the first half of 2011 of 56% shows that the recovery of the Russian market is now well established and is tracking
ahead of our latest forecast of 2.35m units for the full year. June compared to June of last year is 40% up so while the rate of
growth is slowing we must remember that for the second half of this year we will be comparing with the recovering.

July shows strong but slowing growth: the AEB forecast increased to 2.45 mln units in 2011

• Sales of new passenger cars and LCVs in Russia increased by 50% in the first 7 months of 2011 and
by 27% in July 2011
• Among the top 10 bestselling models so far, nine are locally produced
The first seven months of 2011 saw sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia increase by 50% compared
with the same period in 2010 or by 489,246 more sold units, according to the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee
(AEB AMC).
Growth for July 2011 amounted to 27% or 47,287 units compared with the same period in 2010.
Among the top ten bestselling models of passenger cars so far, nine are produced in Russia

Sales of new passenger cars and LCVs in Russia increased by 48% in the first 8 months of 2011 and
by 32% in August 2011


The first 8 months of 2011 saw sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia increase by 48% compared with the
same period in 2010 or by 544,850 more sold units, according to the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee (AEB
AMC).
Growth for August 2011 amounted to 32% or 54,777 units compared with the same period in 2010.
Among the top ten bestselling models of passenger cars so far, nine are produced in Russia.

David Thomas, Chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee commented:
"The 32% growth in August compared to last year is in line with the AMC expectations for the remainder of 2011. With
improving consumer confidence and availability of credit we forecast that the full year growth will be around 30%, which will
be a similar growth level to 2010. This more stable growth pattern is encouraging and shows signs that the Russian automotive
market is following a more stable progression back to pre-crisis levels."

The first three quarters of 2011 saw sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia increase by 45% compared with the same period in 2010 or by 593,345 more sold units, according to the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee (AEB AMC).
Growth for September 2011 amounted to 26% or 48,495 units compared with the same period in 2010.
Among the top ten bestselling models of passenger cars so far, nine are produced in Russia.

David Thomas, Chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee commented:
"The 26% increase for the month of September is in line with our recent expectations of a slowing but still strong growth for
the remainder of 2011. The full year forecast of 2.45m cars and light commercial vehicles looks very achievable and the
market prospects for the final quarter remain very positive with much improved credit availability and robust consumer
confidence. Now that we have three quarters of data we will be able to include our forecast for 2012 in the next press release."

October Shows the Stabilising Trend for the Final Quarter of 2011.
• Sales of new passenger cars and LCVs in Russia increased by 43% in the first ten months of 2011
and by 27% in October 2011
• Among the top ten bestselling models so far, nine are locally produced
The first ten months of 2011 saw sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia increase by 43% compared with
the same period in 2010 or by 645,051 more sold units, according to the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee (AEB
AMC).
Growth for October 2011 amounted to 27% or 51,349 units compared with the same period in 2010.
Among the top ten bestselling models of passenger cars so far, nine are produced in Russia.
David Thomas, Chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee commented:
"The 27% increase for the month of October shows the stabilising trend for the final quarter of 2011. The very strong start to
2011 means that our full year forecast increases to 2.55m cars and light commercial vehicles as we do not expect a significant
slowdown in the last two months of the year. This will mean that for the full year the total industry volume will increase by
more than 30%. Based on a 2.55m market this year our initial forecast for 2012 is 2.8m, growth of 12%

Selon l'Association des Entreprises Européennes (AEB), le marché automobile russe se porte à merveille. En effet, les ventes connaissent une croissance de 43% sur les dix premiers mois 2011. Ainsi, depuis le début de l'année, plus de 2,1 millions de véhicules ont été vendus.

Cependant pour David Thomas, président du comité des constructeurs automobiles de l'AEB, "les ventes de véhicules particuliers et utilitaires légers qui ont progressé de 27% au mois d'octobre montrent une tendance à la stabilisation du marché automobile pour le dernier trimestre 2011".

Après avoir connu de graves difficultés en 2009 suite à la crise économique mondiale, le secteur automobile russe renoue avec la croissance. Pour rappel, il avait chuté de 49% en 2009. En 2010, les ventes avaient repris en permettant au marché russe de croître de 30% sur un an à 1,9 million d'unités.

David Thomas table sur 2,55 millions d'unités vendues en 2011, "en se basant sur des ventes de 2,55 millions d'unités cette année, notre prévision initiale pour 2012 est de 2,8 millions, soit une hausse de 12% par rapport à 2011".

Sales of new passenger cars and LCVs in Russia increased by 41% in the first eleven months of 2011 and by 26% in November 2011

"The 26% increase for the month of November and prospects for December now indicate a full year market of 2.6m cars and
light commercial vehicles, higher than our previous forecast of 2.55m. This will mean that for the full year the total industry
volume will increase by nearly 37% compared to 2010. However, we do not at this stage see any cause to revise upwards our
initial forecast for 2012 of 2.8m cars and light commercial vehicles though this will lead to a much lower year to year growth
of less than 8% for the coming year.

Russian Automotive Market is to Maintain a Consistent Growth in 2012

• Sales of new passenger cars and LCVs in Russia increased by 39% in 2011 and by 23% in
December 2011
• Among the top ten bestselling models so far, nine are locally produced
• AEB AMC announces its forecast for 2012 as 2.8 million cars and LCVs
Year 2011 saw sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles in Russia increase by 39% compared with 2010 or by 740,614
more sold units, according to the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee (AEB AMC).
Growth for December 2011 amounted to 23% or 46,206 units compared with the same period in 2010.
Among the top ten bestselling models of passenger cars so far, nine are produced in Russia.

David Thomas, Chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee commented:
"The 23% year on year growth in the December market brings us to a final full year figure of 2.6m Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles up 39% on 2010. This is in line with last month's forecast and the previously identified trend of stabilising yet consistent growth.

This also supports our view of continued though slower growth in 2012 with a current consensus forecast of 2.8m. Clearly
2012 can be impacted by the global financial environment but the ingredients for growth this year remain; low level of car
ownership, age of vehicles in use and significant potential as well as investment activities in the regions. In order for this to be realised we will need to see stability in the availability of finance for vehicle purchase and a stable investment climate for producers and retailers. With all these elements in place the Passenger Car and Light Commercial Vehicle market in Russia can grow close to its pre-crisis levels.